U-Haul support holding at $320.


Technically Speaking

Demand at 320 has held going back to February of 2015.

If that level fails to hold, the next level of support is at 260, 18% to the downside. 

Risk

What is the probability of a permanent loss of capital? 

How much of my capital am I going to put at risk? 1%, 3%? You have to make this decision. Remember, deep drawdowns are hard to come out of, the number one rule in my book is to limit the downside.

Quote

"Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds"- Albert Einstein


Frontier communications(FTR) nearing important support

Technically Speaking

Price is coming up on the support zone b/w 3-4. 

The R/R seems to favor a long position at these levels. 

A good target would be the 2015 high print around 8.50.

Risk

For me, I always think about risk, not as volatility, but the probability of a permanent loss of capital. You can never know for sure what the probability is but I think most people can come to a conclusion about what is most likely. 

Read here and here for a rundown on the companies troubles.

What to do?

How much of your portfolio are you willing to risk to see if this trade will play out in your favor? 1%, 2%, 5%? Only you can answer that questions. 

Dollar Tree Nearing Support

Technically Speaking 

Price is approaching the support zone, say 72-76 level. The next support level I see on the chart is the 61ish level. 
For me, the better R/R might be waiting for the latter level to be tested, but it may never get there, that is the risk you run by waiting. 
Note, if you are a buyer at these levels, determine where you will get out. If you hold until the next support level, that could be painful. 


Fundamentals 
If you are not familiar with what they do, here is a link to their website: https://www.dollartree.com/ 

One of the best lessons I have learned is the ability to cut losses quickly. This definition will be d/f for everybody, but experience has taught me, that limiting losses is the surest way to success. It is just so hard to pull your way out of deep drawdowns. Enough preaching. Have a good day.

The model portfolio

Today, I am adding to the member service a model portfolio that will trade stocks and ETF's. I will use the Think or Swim platform to keep up with all the trades. In the near future(1-2 years) I will open up a robinhood account using my own money and that will serve as the model portfolio going forward. I believe every investor should see how much a manger has in his own fund. According to research by Meb Faber, they don't have much.

One of the most important skills in investing is to correctly size positions. Most newsletters I have read give plenty of ideas and alerts but do not tell you how much to buy. How much of something one owns makes a HUGE d/f over the long term. 

The service will be $9/month and will include everything in the original member service.


My long-term goal is to have an active mgmt business that gives the client more control and transparency. 

Drop me an email if you have any questions or hit me up on twitter or stock twits.

jcd5816@gmail.com

jcd5816 for twitter and stocktwits

Caleb Dismuke

Results from September 2016

Monthly Return: -.4

YTD Totals

Live Account: 17.34


Note:

During September I started trading a notional account of $40,000. I did this because the firm that I am trying to raise money from would like to see my results with a bigger account size. Naturally, the swings are going to be bigger from a pure dollar perspective. From here until noted otherwise, P/L will be calculated based on a $40,000 account size.